90+ Useful Mental Models, Frameworks, and Concepts Mental models can help us understand the world and make better decisions. These are some of my favorites.
Demystifying Deep Neural Networks A 101 primer on neural networks that assumes no machine learning knowledge.
Should people pay to opt-out of vaccination? Herd immunity is a public good, but mandating vaccination could be seen as an infringement on liberties and autonomy. On the object-level, I think a lot of people support the idea of mandatory vaccinations, but the meta-level principle 'the government should be able to force me to undergo medical procedures
Can you trust productivity creators to try to give good advice? A lot of productivity creators tell people things like: Unsubscribe from newslettersConsume less contentGet off social mediaWhich is interesting, since many of these creators make money from their audiences through these very channels. A useful thing to do when someone gives you advice is to think: Why are they telling
Skeptics in the Pub: Too dangerous to publish? Navigating the high-stakes nature of AI researchThis Thursday I am giving a talk at Skeptics in the Pub Online! Skeptics in the Pub is high on the list of things I miss about the UK, so I'm very glad that I can still participate virtually. I'll be speaking about responsible
Win probability vs expected margin I really like how the New York Times had visualizations of not just the win probability but also the expected margin of the recent senate elections. I'm not sure if this is new or if I just haven't noticed it before, but it's so much more intuitive. When I looked
The most irritating thing about iOS A few months ago, I got my first ever iPhone. Until then, my smartphones were always Android. I don't think either is particularly better than the other, but since I use a Mac and an iPad it does make everything a little bit smoother, and I'm now so deep into
How surprised would you be if you failed? Ali Abdaal recently posted a video in which he shares his "anti-wasteman" system for making progress on his bucketlist. A key feature of the system is asking the question "How surprised would I be if I failed in this goal?" and then "What are the top 3 reasons for this
Andrew Critch on AI existential safety It can be very confusing to talk about issues in AI and ML since so many of the terms are overloaded, or have both technical and general meanings, or have shifted in meaning over time. Andrew Critch (with whom I used to work at CHAI) has written a comprehensive blog
Interstitial journal: first day back at work Yesterday I wrote about how I'm attempting to start a whole load of new habits in one go, but that I was nervous about whether they would stick once I was back at work. I planned out a 'target day' to make sure I'd be able to fit in the
Complementary habits Conventional wisdom on building habits warns against making too many changes at once. Generally, the advice is to pick one small thing first, and really focus on nailing that one habit before adding another. This has generally been my approach in the past, but over the last few weeks I've
My 2020 annual review process In 2018, I did my first proper annual review. I followed the process outlined in this document, and it took absolutely ages. I followed the same process for 2019, and it was a little faster since I was mostly able to just describe what had changed since last year rather
Actualism: When it pays to accept second best If I am trying to eat healthily, I know I should try to cook more at home. I also know that brown rice is more nutritious than white rice. I don't like the taste of brown rice as much, but a lot of healthy-eating advice encourages me to choose whole
Cat poetry Loosely inspired by Senryū/Haiku Cat on my bed A furry boulder Where my feet should be Sitting like a loaf You eye up My sandwich Lounging on my keyboard The cat says prrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr,,,,,,,
Is the placebo effect real? Mike Hall from the Merseyside Skeptics says of the placebo effect: “Confirmation bias means patients are more likely to notice and report changes that they are expecting and ignore changes they aren’t. The Hawthorne Effect means patients may alter their behaviour, simply because they are aware they are being
Capturing everything with Drafts My first piece of advice to people who want to get more organized is: Write. It. Down. Everything. Your brain is a sieve; you think you'll remember, and then you won't. Sometimes you'll remember that there's something you're supposed to remember but you're not sure what it is, other times
Positive-sum does not necessarily mean win-win Epistemic status: I think this is right but it's surprisingly hard to find clarification on this so I could be missing something Positive-sum interactions means the total gains outweigh the total losses - i.e., the pie gets bigger. A win-win situation means both parties come out better off -
How come firms in market economies are centrally planned internally? Epistemic status: Thinking out loud In economics, the idealized 'free market' allows people to trade goods and services for money. The claim is that the laws of supply and demand determine prices in a decentralized way, leading to an efficient allocation of resources without the oversight of a central planner
Paul Millerd on the State of Work in 2020 I enjoyed this Twitter thread by Paul Millerd: 1/ Going to kickstart a @threadapalooza here. Topic: The State of Work 2020 I'm going to give you a short intro of why I care then I'll just throw out 1-opinion / 1-like style takes. I imagine this will
My management philosophy and working preferences [For my direct reports] I see the main responsibilities of a manager being to: Shield their direct reports from nonsenseChampion them and their workHelp ruthlessly prioritize based on organizational, team, and personal goalsI like to use the ‘Manager Tools’ techniques for management. The most salient things here are: Weekly 1-1s
How to throw a party Invite more people than you think you need / can accommodate. Many won't be available, and many will drop out at the last minute. Parties feel way more lively when there are slightly more people than can comfortably fit in the space. Have background music on. You could create a playlist
